Weighted Average COGS = (20 x $140 + 8 x $150) / 28 = $143.57

Per Unit Economics
--------------------------------------------------------------

Revenue (ASP)                           $353.09   100.0%
                                        -------   ------
Less: COGS                             ($143.57)  -40.7%
                                        -------   ------
= GROSS PROFIT                          $209.52    59.3%
                                        -------   ------
Less: Payment Processing (2.9% + $0.30) ($10.54)   -3.0%
Less: Shopify Fees (~$29/mo / 2 units)  ($14.50)   -4.1%
                                        -------   ------
= CONTRIBUTION MARGIN                   $184.48    52.2%
                                        -------   ------
Less: Allocated Ad Spend                ($47.95)  -13.6%
                                        -------   ------
= NET PROFIT (after ads)                $136.53    38.7%
--------------------------------------------------------------

BEDHEAD CUSHION SALES SUMMARY
---------------------------------------------------------------

Total Paid Orders:          27 orders
Total Units Sold:           28 units (one order had 2x)

Linen Bedheads:            20 units    $7,157.21    (75%)
Boucle Bedheads:            8 units    $2,729.20    (25%)
                           ---------   ----------
TOTAL:                     28 units    $9,886.41

International Orders:       2 orders   ($516.22 US + $397.99 NZ)
Domestic (AU) Orders:      25 orders

Average Selling Price:
  - All Bedheads:          $353.09
  - Linen Only:            $357.86
  - Boucle Only:           $341.15

ROAS CALCULATION
---------------------------------------------------------------

Revenue (Bedheads Only):   $9,549.41
Ad Spend:                  $1,342.65
-------------------------------------
ROAS:                      7.11x

Interpretation: Every $1 spent on ads generated $7.11 in revenue.

ROAS by Gross Profit:
  Gross Profit:            $5,666.56 (28 x $202.38 avg)
  Ad Spend:                $1,342.65
  -----------------------------------
  Profit ROAS:             4.22x

Interpretation: Every $1 in ads generated $4.22 in gross profit.

BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
---------------------------------------------------------------

Gross Profit per Unit:     $209.52
Ad Spend per Unit:         $47.95 (current allocation)
Net Profit per Unit:       $161.57

Break-Even Ad Spend:
  If GP = $209.52, we can spend up to $209.52 on ads per sale
  to break even.

  Current CPA: $47.95
  Break-even CPA: $209.52

  HEADROOM: $161.57 per sale (can increase ad spend 4.4x)

Maximum Viable CPC:
  If conversion rate is 0.40% (26 customers / 6,513 clicks)
  And break-even CPA is $209.52

  Max CPC = $209.52 x 0.40% = $0.84

  Current CPC: $0.21
  HEADROOM: $0.63 per click (can bid 4x more aggressively)

If we maintain current CAC ($51.64) and increase ad spend:

Ad Spend:        $8,000
Expected Sales:  155 units ($8,000 / $51.64)
Revenue:         $54,729 (155 x $353)
Gross Profit:    $32,476 (155 x $209.52)
Net Profit:      $24,476 (after ads)
ROAS:            6.84x

With proper pixel tracking, expect 30% CAC improvement:

Improved CAC:    $36.15 ($51.64 x 0.70)
Ad Spend:        $8,000
Expected Sales:  221 units ($8,000 / $36.15)
Revenue:         $78,033 (221 x $353)
Gross Profit:    $46,303 (221 x $209.52)
Net Profit:      $38,303 (after ads)
ROAS:            9.75x

Optimised ads + organic growth + Instagram selling:

Paid Sales:      221 units (from Scenario B)
Organic Sales:   100 units (Instagram DMs, word of mouth)
                 -----------
Total Sales:     321 units
Revenue:         $113,342 (321 x $353)
Gross Profit:    $67,257
Ad Spend:        $8,000
Net Profit:      $59,257
Effective ROAS:  14.17x

2026 OPTIMISED P&L FORECAST
---------------------------------------------------------------

REVENUE
  Paid Acquisition (221 units x $373)        $82,433
  Organic/Instagram (80 units x $373)        $29,840
  Repeat Customers (20 units x $373)          $7,460
  Cover-Only Sales (25 x $190)                $4,750
                                            ----------
  TOTAL REVENUE                             $124,483

COST OF GOODS SOLD
  Bedheads (321 x $125.50 optimised)        $40,286
  Covers (25 x $60)                          $1,500
                                            ----------
  TOTAL COGS                                $41,786

                                            ----------
GROSS PROFIT                                $82,697   66.4%

OPERATING EXPENSES
  Meta Ads                                   $8,000
  Google Ads                                 $2,000
  Email Marketing                              $600
  Payment Processing (3%)                    $3,734
  Shopify Subscription                         $348
  Packaging/Supplies                         $1,000
                                            ----------
  TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES                  $15,682

                                            ----------
OPERATING PROFIT                            $67,015   53.8%

Emily's Effective Hourly Rate:
  If 10 hrs/week x 52 weeks = 520 hours
  $67,015 / 520 = $128.87/hour
---------------------------------------------------------------

DATA SOURCES
  Wise Webhooks           Telegram Replies    Manual Entry
  (balances#credit,       (text, photos,      (via MCP tools)
   transfers#state-change) categories)
           |                     |                  |
           v                     v                  v
                  AZURE FUNCTIONS (analytics/)

  httpWiseWebhook    httpTelegramWebhook    scheduledFinSync
  - Verify sig       - Handle replies        - Hourly backup
  - Parse tx         - Download photos       - Fill gaps
  - Store to DB      - Process text          - Reconcile
  - Send Telegram    - Link to tx
           |                     |                  |
           v                     v                  v
                    Service Bus Queue
                    (process-receipt)
                           |
                           v
              queueProcessReceipt
              - Download image from Telegram
              - Upload to CDN (R2)
              - Send to Grok AI for extraction
              - Parse: vendor, amount, date, items
              - Update transaction with extracted data
                           |
                           v
                    DATA STORAGE

  Cosmos DB              BigQuery              Cloudflare R2
  (Real-time)            (Analytics)           (Receipt images)
  - transactions         - transactions        - receipts/{tx_id}.jpg
  - receipts             - receipts
  - annotations          - annotations
  - message_mappings     - account_balances

                         VIEWS:
                         - monthly_pnl
                         - expense_by_category
                         - tax_deductions
                         - cash_flow
                         - vendor_spend
                         - unit_economics

You pay a supplier via Wise
         |
         v
Wise fires webhook (transfers#state-change)
         |
         v
Azure Function receives, stores, sends to Telegram
         |
         v
+---------------------------------------------+
| Outgoing Transaction                         |
|                                              |
| Amount: -$2,450.00 AUD                       |
| To: Julie Zhu (Supplier)                     |
| Reference: INV-2026-0042                     |
| Time: 5 Feb 2026, 2:34 PM                    |
|                                              |
| Reply to add notes or receipt photo          |
|                                              |
| [COGS] [Ops] [Marketing] [Other]             |
+---------------------------------------------+

User taps [COGS] button
         |
         v
Bot updates message: "Category: COGS"
Transaction tagged in database

User replies with receipt photo
         |
         v
Bot: "Processing receipt..."
         |
         v
Grok AI extracts:
  - Vendor: Julie Zhu Textiles
  - Invoice #: INV-2026-0042
  - Items: 50x Linen covers @ $45ea
  - GST: $222.73
  - Total: $2,450.00
         |
         v
Bot: "Receipt processed!
      Vendor: Julie Zhu Textiles
      Items: 50x Linen covers
      GST: $222.73"

CREATE TABLE arlem.transactions (
  id STRING NOT NULL,
  wise_id STRING,

  -- Core transaction data
  transaction_date TIMESTAMP NOT NULL,
  type STRING NOT NULL,  -- 'incoming', 'outgoing', 'conversion', 'fee'

  -- Amounts
  amount NUMERIC NOT NULL,
  currency STRING NOT NULL,
  amount_aud NUMERIC,  -- Converted for consistency
  exchange_rate NUMERIC,
  fees NUMERIC,
  fees_currency STRING,

  -- Counterparty
  counterparty_name STRING,
  counterparty_account STRING,
  reference STRING,

  -- Categorisation (user-provided)
  category STRING,  -- 'COGS', 'Marketing', 'Operations', 'Personal', etc.
  subcategory STRING,

  -- Metadata
  source STRING DEFAULT 'wise',
  created_at TIMESTAMP DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP(),
  updated_at TIMESTAMP,

  -- For querying
  year INT64 GENERATED ALWAYS AS (EXTRACT(YEAR FROM transaction_date)),
  month INT64 GENERATED ALWAYS AS (EXTRACT(MONTH FROM transaction_date)),
  quarter INT64 GENERATED ALWAYS AS (EXTRACT(QUARTER FROM transaction_date))
);

CREATE VIEW arlem.monthly_pnl AS
SELECT
  FORMAT_DATE('%Y-%m', transaction_date) as month,

  -- Revenue
  SUM(CASE WHEN type = 'incoming' AND source = 'shopify'
      THEN amount_aud ELSE 0 END) as revenue,

  -- COGS
  SUM(CASE WHEN type = 'outgoing' AND category = 'COGS'
      THEN ABS(amount_aud) ELSE 0 END) as cogs,

  -- Gross Profit
  SUM(CASE WHEN type = 'incoming' AND source = 'shopify'
      THEN amount_aud ELSE 0 END) -
  SUM(CASE WHEN type = 'outgoing' AND category = 'COGS'
      THEN ABS(amount_aud) ELSE 0 END) as gross_profit,

  -- Operating Expenses
  SUM(CASE WHEN type = 'outgoing' AND category = 'Marketing'
      THEN ABS(amount_aud) ELSE 0 END) as marketing,
  SUM(CASE WHEN type = 'outgoing' AND category = 'Operations'
      THEN ABS(amount_aud) ELSE 0 END) as operations,
  SUM(CASE WHEN type = 'outgoing' AND category = 'Software'
      THEN ABS(amount_aud) ELSE 0 END) as software,

  -- Net Profit
  SUM(CASE
    WHEN type = 'incoming' THEN amount_aud
    WHEN type = 'outgoing' THEN -ABS(amount_aud)
    ELSE 0
  END) as net_profit

FROM arlem.transactions
GROUP BY 1
ORDER BY 1 DESC;

# Wise Webhooks
WISE_WEBHOOK_SECRET=your-webhook-signing-secret

# Telegram
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=123456789:ABCdefGHI...
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID=-1001234567890
TELEGRAM_WEBHOOK_SECRET=random-secret-for-verification
ALLOWED_TELEGRAM_CHAT_IDS=-1001234567890

# Grok AI
GROK_API_KEY=xai-...

# CDN (receipts)
R2_ACCOUNT_ID=...
R2_ACCESS_KEY_ID=...
R2_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY=...
R2_BUCKET_NAME=arlem-receipts