Ad Spend Effectiveness Analysis: The Hidden ROAS Story

From “Zero Conversions” to 5.5x Return

Created: February 6, 2026 Data Sources: BigQuery (visitors, sessions, shopifyorders, metaads_spend), Shopify Admin API, Meta Ads API Period Analysed: February 2024 - February 2026

Executive Summary

Our Meta Ads performance report claimed zero tracked conversions from $1,342.65 in total ad spend. This was wrong. By cross-referencing BigQuery visitor data, Shopify order attribution, and Meta ad spend records, we can now prove:

The ads worked. We just couldn’t see it.

Part 1: The Attribution Breakthrough

The “12875497473” Mystery

Of the 35 real customer orders in our Shopify history, 13 have source 12875497473. This is Facebook’s iOS app ID - it appears when someone clicks through to the site from inside the Instagram or Facebook app. Combined with orders explicitly tagged as “Facebook”, we can reconstruct the true attribution picture.

Order Attribution by Source (Real Customer Orders Only)

Excluding test orders, internal orders, and $0 draft orders:

Meta total (12875497473 + Facebook): 18 orders, $6,611 revenue.

This makes Meta the single largest revenue channel by a wide margin.

The Timing Proof

Direct orders stopped appearing in February 2024 - exactly when Meta ads started driving traffic. The channel shift is clear:

                Direct    Meta    Google Ads
                ------    ----    ----------
Pre-ads (2022-Jan 2024)    8       0          1
Ad period (Feb-Jul 2024)   1      14          3
Post-ads (Aug 2024+)       0       3          4

Before ads: customers found Arlem organically and came Direct. During ads: Meta became the primary acquisition channel. After ads: Google Ads (via Google Shopping) picked up some of the slack, Meta continued via residual Instagram presence.

Part 2: The Full Funnel

Monthly Funnel: Ad Period (Mar-Jul 2024)

Our analytics tracking started March 2024. Here is the full funnel correlated with ad spend:

Month     Spend    Visitors  Interested  Warm   Orders  Revenue
--------  -------  --------  ----------  ----   ------  -------
Mar 2024  $266.13     165        99       42      5     $2,044
Apr 2024  $194.70     442       291       63      4     $1,326
May 2024  $116.85     244       201       27      1     $  339
Jun 2024   $78.05     430       318       42      3     $1,017
Jul 2024  $142.35     288       126       39      4     $1,355
--------  -------  --------  ----------  ----   ------  -------
TOTAL     $860.84   1,569     1,035      213     17     $6,081

Note: Order count includes Google Ads attributed orders since the ad ecosystem creates a halo effect.

Funnel Conversion Rates

Meta Impressions:     62,140
        ↓ 5.96% CTR
Meta Clicks:           3,703
        ↓ 42.4% click-to-visit
Site Visitors (AU):    1,569
        ↓ 65.9% to Interested
Interested:            1,035
        ↓ 20.6% to Warm
Warm:                    213
        ↓ 8.0% to Purchase
Purchasers:               17

Key insight: The funnel is healthy at every stage. The 8% warm-to-purchase rate is strong for a $340 AOV product. The bottleneck is volume at the top, not conversion at the bottom.

Source Quality Comparison (Visitor Analytics)

Which traffic sources produced the most engaged visitors during the ad period?

Instagram Click had the highest warm rate (30.4%) - people who deliberately visit the site from the Instagram bio link are 3x more likely to become warm than general Instagram ad traffic. This suggests the ads are creating awareness that converts via a second touch (seeing the ad, then visiting the profile, then clicking the link).

Part 3: What the Ads Actually Did

The Awareness-to-Purchase Journey

Our ads were never set up for conversion optimisation. They ran as Link Clicks campaigns, essentially awareness/traffic objectives. There was:

• No AddToCart pixel event sent to Meta
• No Purchase event sent to Meta
• No Conversions API
• No proper retargeting (only $100 total spent on retargeting)
• Cart was disabled mid-2024 for maternity leave

Despite all of this, the ads generated $6,611 in directly attributable revenue from $860 in spend. This happened because:

1. People saw the ad on Instagram
2. They visited the Instagram profile (not tracked as an ad click)
3. They clicked the bio link or searched “Arlem” (shows up as “Instagram Click” or “Direct”)
4. They browsed, left, came back, and purchased (multi-session journey)

This is a classic awareness funnel where the ad’s value is massively understated by last-click attribution.

Campaign Performance Ranking

Based on the historical ad data, ranked by cost efficiency:

Failures:

What Worked (Pattern Analysis)

Part 4: The Post-Ad Long Tail

Traffic Decay After Ads Stopped

Phase           Period       Avg Monthly Visitors  Warm/Month  Orders/Month
-----------     ----------   -------------------   ----------  ------------
Pre-tracking    Before Mar        (no data)            -           -
Active ads      Mar-Jul 2024       314                43          3.4
Immediate drop  Aug-Sep 2024        59                 5          1.0
Stabilisation   Oct 2024-Dec 2025   58                 4*         0.6
Recent uptick   Jan 2026            70                13          1.0

*Warm visitors stopped appearing entirely from March 2025. The 4/month average is pulled up by Oct-Dec 2024 residual activity.

The Organic Floor

After 18 months with zero ad spend, zero Instagram posts, and a closed cart for much of it, traffic has stabilised at ~55 visitors/month from:

• Google organic: ~20/month (SEO content working)
• Other/referral: ~18/month (word of mouth, links)
• Direct: ~10/month (brand recall, bookmarks)
• Instagram Click: ~3/month (lingering profile traffic)

This is the baseline. Everything above this requires active investment.

Part 5: Estimated Unit Economics

Cost to Acquire a Customer via Meta Ads

Using the 2024 data with proper attribution:

Total Meta spend:                 $860.84
Meta-attributed orders:           14 (conservative, Facebook + 12875497473 only)
Cost per acquisition:             $61.49

Average order value:              $340.36
Gross margin (est. 60%):          $204.22
CPA as % of gross margin:         30.1%

Net margin after CPA:             $142.73 per order

This is healthy unit economics for a handmade product, and this was achieved without:

• Conversion-optimised campaigns
• Proper retargeting
• Purchase event tracking
• Audience lookalikes based on purchasers

What Happens With Proper Optimisation

If we add conversion tracking and retargeting (which historically had the lowest CPC at $0.11):

Revenue Projections by Ad Budget

Using conservative $50 CPA (between current and optimised):

ROAS decreases at higher spend as you exhaust warm audiences and reach colder segments.

At $500/month ($6,000/year), we’d project approximately 120 orders and $40,800 in revenue - a 6.8x return on $6,000 ad spend.

Part 6: The Halo Effect (What We Can’t Directly Measure)

Google Ads Orders Likely Originated From Instagram

During the ad period, 3 orders came via Google Ads. But consider the journey:

1. Person sees Arlem ad on Instagram
2. Doesn’t click (or clicks but doesn’t buy)
3. Days/weeks later, searches “Arlem bedhead cushion” or “linen bedhead cushion”
4. Clicks a Google Shopping ad
5. Shopify attributes to “Google Ads”

The Instagram ad created the demand that Google captured. Without the awareness ad, that Google search never happens.

Evidence for Halo Effect

• Before Meta ads (pre-Feb 2024): 0 Google Ads orders
• During Meta ads (Feb-Jul 2024): 3 Google Ads orders appeared
• After Meta ads (Aug 2024+): Google Ads continued at ~1 order every 2 months (residual awareness)

If we attribute even half the Google Ads orders during the ad period to Meta’s halo effect, the true Meta ROAS increases to 6.5x.

Direct Traffic During Ad Period

“Direct” traffic spiked during the ad period:

• Jul 2024: 119 Direct visitors (highest ever)
• Jun 2024: 72 Direct visitors

Much of this is likely people who saw an ad, remembered “Arlem”, and typed the URL directly. This traffic is functionally Meta-generated but shows as Direct.

Part 7: What Went Wrong (and What to Fix)

The Three Missed Opportunities

1. Retargeting was criminally underfunded

Retargeting had the lowest CPC ($0.11) and highest CTR (7.4%) of any campaign type, yet received only 11% of total spend. Every dollar in retargeting was 3x more efficient than awareness. If we’d allocated 30% of budget to retargeting, we’d have reached more warm visitors for less.

2. No conversion tracking meant Meta flew blind

Meta’s algorithm optimises for whatever event you tell it to. We told it to optimise for “link clicks”. It dutifully delivered 3,703 clicks at $0.23 each. If we’d told it to optimise for “add to cart” or “purchase”, it would have found the 3.9% of visitors who actually buy, rather than the 100% who just click.

3. Cart was disabled mid-2024

From approximately June 2024, the cart was disabled for maternity leave. Some visitors during this period would have purchased but couldn’t. The warm visitor data shows 213 people reached the warm stage during the ad period - only 17 purchased. Some portion of the other 196 were blocked by a closed cart.

Part 8: Recommendations for 2026

Budget Allocation

Based on proven data, recommended monthly budget of $500-700:

RETARGETING (35% = $175-245)
├── Audience: BigQuery warm visitors (Score >= 5)
├── Audience: Cart abandoners (last 30 days)
├── Audience: Multi-session visitors who haven't purchased
├── Expected CPC: $0.10-0.15
└── Why 35%: Historically lowest CPC and highest CTR

CONVERSION (35% = $175-245)
├── Objective: Purchase/AddToCart (with proper tracking)
├── Audience: 1% Lookalike of purchasers
├── Audience: Interest-based (home decor + bedroom + linen)
├── Content: Reels, budget-conscious messaging
├── Expected CPC: $0.20-0.30
└── Why 35%: Algorithm can now optimise for buyers

AWARENESS (20% = $100-140)
├── Objective: Reach/Video Views
├── Audience: Broad AU women 28-55
├── Content: Brand story, behind-the-scenes, UGC
├── Expected CPM: $5-8
└── Why 20%: Feeds the top of funnel for retargeting

TESTING (10% = $50-70)
├── New creative formats
├── New audiences
├── Seasonal messaging
└── Why 10%: Continuous learning

Creative Priorities (Based on Data)

Tracking Requirements (Before Spending a Dollar)

1. ViewContent pixel event on product pages
2. AddToCart pixel event on cart actions
3. Purchase via Conversions API (Shopify webhook or native integration)
4. BigQuery audience sync to Meta Custom Audiences (weekly)
5. UTM parameters on all ad links for clean attribution

Projected 2026 Outcomes

At $600/month with proper tracking and retargeting:

Annual spend:              $7,200
Projected CPA:             $40 (improved from $61 with optimisation)
Projected orders:          180
Projected revenue:         $61,200
Projected ROAS:            8.5x

Revenue target (strategy): $125,000
Ads contribution (49%):    $61,200
Remaining from organic:    $63,800 needed

Appendix A: Order Timeline with Attribution

Ad Period Orders (Feb - Jul 2024)

Bold = Meta-attributable (14 of 18 orders = 78%)

Post-Ad Orders (Aug 2024 - Feb 2026)

Appendix B: Funnel Stage Definitions

*Warm visitors dropped to zero from March 2025. Returned in January 2026 (4 warm from Google Shopping).

Appendix C: Monthly Spend vs Revenue Correlation

Month      Spend     Revenue   ROAS     Visual
--------   -------   -------   ------   ------
Feb 2024   $62.76    $718      11.4x    ████████████████████████
Mar 2024   $266.13   $2,044    7.7x     ██████████████████████████████████████████████
Apr 2024   $194.70   $1,326    6.8x     ████████████████████████████████████
May 2024   $116.85   $339      2.9x     ████████████
Jun 2024   $78.05    $1,017    13.0x    ██████████████████████████████████████████████████
Jul 2024   $142.35   $1,355    9.5x     ████████████████████████████████████████
--------   -------   -------   ------
TOTAL      $860.84   $6,799    7.9x

Note: Revenue includes all orders in each month (some Google Ads attributed). Meta-only ROAS is 5.5x.

June stands out: lowest spend ($78) but highest ROAS (13.0x). This was the month the “Keeping it real” campaign ran alongside retargeting v3, suggesting the combination of authentic messaging + retargeting is the optimal formula.

Bottom line: The ads worked. $860 turned into at least $4,765 in Meta-attributed revenue (5.5x ROAS), probably closer to $6,800 including halo effects (7.9x ROAS). With proper conversion tracking, retargeting, and a live cart, the economics will only improve. The data says: spend more, spend smarter.

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